In recent years, China's chemical industry has been at the intersection of a "deep adjustment and pain period" and a "green transformation opportunity period." On the one hand, the industry's scale is approaching its peak, with overcapacity, declining profits, and structural contradictions intertwined. On the other hand, global trade protectionism is rising, carbon peak targets are forcing green transformation, and the mismatch between technological innovation and market demand has become a key challenge to the survival of enterprises. Pingtouge believes,2025the year may become a turning point for Chinese chemical enterprises, with difficulties and opportunities coexisting. At this stage, what can chemical enterprises do?

I. China's chemical technology has made rapid progress, but there is still a long way to go from "following" to "leading"

According to Pingtouge's statistics, China's chemical technology has made rapid progress in recent years, and many technologies have been rapidly improved.

2025Year3Month, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical, in collaboration with a team from the University of Science and Technology of China, successfully developed the world's first nickel-based catalyst technology, directly synthesizingEPOE，breaking the foreign monopoly on polyolefin elastomer (POE) technology for30years. This technology eliminates dependence on imported high-carbon α-olefins, reduces production costs, and the product performance comprehensively surpasses imported counterparts. It can be applied to photovoltaic and new energy vehicle fields.

2024Year11Month, China National Chemical Corporation's Cangzhou Dahua independently developed20%silicon content copolymerPCwas successfully tested, filling a domestic gap. This material has high silicon content, low-temperature impact resistance, and synergistic flame retardancy, and can be applied to new energy and medical devices.

2024Year11Month, Tianjin Petrochemical produced for the first time a polyethylene product with a melt index exceeding150克/10minutes, filling a domestic gap. This product has high fluidity and high gloss, suitable for high-end fields such as industrial wax making and resin viscosity reduction.

2024Year10Month, PetroChina's independently developed high-performance solution polymerization styrene-butadiene rubber achieved industrial production, with styrene content at35%，and vinyl content at40%，reaching internationally advanced levels. This material is a core raw material for green tires.

2024Year10Month, the National Energy Group, in collaboration with a Dutch research institution, developed a synthesis gas direct-to-linear α-olefin technology based on pure phaseχ-Fe₅C₂catalyst, breaking the cost limitations of traditional ethylene oligomerization methods and capable of producing full carbon chain (α-烯烃C4-C20) products.

2024Year11Month, China Coal Science and Technology Group built China's first coal-basedPENmonomer 100-ton pilot plant, developing a2,6-naphthalenedicarboxylic acid low-cost production process, breaking the technological monopoly of Teijin Limited of Japan.PENThe material has advantages such as high temperature resistance and high barrier properties, and can be applied to new energy vehicle battery diaphragms and photovoltaic backplanes.

Although China's chemical technology has made rapid progress in recent years, there is still a gap compared with Europe and the United States. The latest data from the US Chemical Week shows that China only accounts for1seats among the top ten global suppliers of specialty chemicals.

Bayer has achieved 10,000-ton-level mass production in the field of bio-based polyurethane, and its product carbon emissions are reduced by60%。Covestro usesAIcatalyst design system to shorten the new material R&D cycle to18months. However, among Chinese petrochemical enterprises,2/3of enterprises are still using production processes from ten years ago, and the current digitalization rate of enterprises is less than35%，and the quality traceability system coverage rate is less than28%，and the capacity utilization rate of the domestic polyolefin industry has fallen below70%，while the growth of imported high-end grade products has increased by12%。The development and innovation of petrochemical technology is directly related to the market share and coverage rate of high-end products.

II. China's chemical industry is developing rapidly, but still faces multiple challenges

Although China's chemical industry is developing rapidly,2025year will still face many challenges. First, the internal pressure is relatively large, and structural imbalance and decline in economic efficiency are highly probable events. Second, the game between environmental pressure and global competition, enterprises must face the challenge of internal and external factors.

According to Pingtouge's understanding,2024year, the import share of China's high-end polyolefins, electronic chemicals, and ultra-pure reagents exceeded50%，and the import dependence remains high, and high-end chemical products are always in short supply. At the same time, the homogenization of Chinese products is serious, and the production capacity growth rate of basic chemical products is too fast, leading to a rapid decline in product prices.2024Year, the ethylene price fell year-on-year by12%，and ethylene, as the core basic raw material of the chemical industry, and the related2024year's chemical sector profit fell by31.2%，and the industry is trapped in a "growing output but not growing profit" vicious cycle.

In addition, environmental pressure and external competition are increasing. The EU carbon border adjustment mechanism (CBAMAfter implementation, the carbon cost of export products increased5%-10%Enterprises need to invest extra in green technology, which also increases the cost of green certification. This undoubtedly presents a huge challenge for Chinese companies exporting to the EU. Japan and South Korea's market share in the electronic chemical industry exceeds50%However, there are obvious restrictions on exports to China, leading to a persistent shortage of high-end electronic chemicals in China.

2025In the year, the US may wield the tariff stick again, potentially leading to2025The year's global chemical trade growth may fall to2.0%lower than2024the year's3.5%This poses a huge obstacle to the development of international trade for Chinese chemical companies.

III. Chinese chemical companies are actively increasing policy coordination and ecological co-construction

China's chemical industry is a policy-driven industry, and national policies play a crucial role and driving force in the development of the industry. In the early stage, China's chemical industry mainly focused on large-scale development, expanding the guarantee of basic raw materials and the overall scale of the industry through scale expansion. Currently, it is in the late stage of scale expansion, and quality is the current development principle. The transition from scale expansion to quality priority requires policy leadership.

Optimizing industrial policies, eliminating backward production capacity through energy efficiency standards and environmental regulations, and promoting industry integration are currently important policy guidance directions. For example, production restrictions are imposed on devices with energy consumption exceeding the benchmark value20%to force enterprises to upgrade their technology. Increase subsidies for the research and development of high-end materials and green technologies, and establish special funds to support the tackling of "bottleneck" technologies. In addition, improve the carbon market mechanism, and guide enterprises towards low-carbon transformation through carbon trading and green credit tools.

Companies such as Wanhua Chemical, Bohai Chemical Group, etc., signed agreements with Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Tianjin University and other universities, as well as local governments such as Zibo City and Puyang City, to jointly build a biodegradable materials industrial cluster. Local governments provide land, tax and other policy support, forming a collaborative innovation ecosystem of “leading enterprises leading+University technical support+Local policy support,” reducing enterprise R&D costs30%and above, promoting the regional industrial cluster development.

Wanhua Chemical and Yantai Municipal Government jointly created a “three-invisible” green and ecological chemical park (no leaks, no noise, no odor). Constructing an integrated energy utilization hot water pipe network, recovering industrial waste heat for urban heating, reducing carbon emissions annually by670tonnes. At the same time, developing "zero-carbon Community" ultra-low energy consumption buildings, energy consumption reduced by50%above. Under the efficient coordination between enterprises and the government, Wanhua became the world's first chemical enterprise to pass the "zero-emission" certification, driving down the unitGDPenergy consumption in the Yantai area15%forming a green governance model of "government sets standards, enterprises implement, and society supervises jointly".

There are many similar cases of government-enterprise and university collaboration. Through enterprise development needs and the government's real-time adjustment of policy matching, co-constructing an ecological development circle is the direction that Chinese chemical companies are actively promoting.

IV. Opportunities for Chinese chemical companies to break through, driving high-quality development with "new productivity"

Facing2025the enormous challenges of the year, Chinese chemical companies are also actively seeking other opportunities to break through. For example, with the advancement of the "dual carbon" goals, emerging fields such as hydrogen energy and biomanufacturing will experience explosive growth. With the rise of new energy vehicles and the semiconductor industry, the demand for high-end materials will continue to expand. Enterprises need to take "technological innovation+ecological synergy" as the core, shifting from "selling products" to "selling services" and from "manufacturing" to "technology".

China's green industry is transitioning from policy-driven to market-leading. The government proposed that2025the output value of recycled materials in the year will reach5trillion yuan, and many enterprises have actively responded. Wanhua Chemical called for setting5%recycled material use standards in the construction and home appliance industries. Hengli Petrochemical achieves energy coupling through an integrated industrial park, and energy consumption is reduced after optimization of the steam grade in refining devices10%。

The rapid growth in demand for new products brought about by green transformation, such as semiconductor photoresist, wet electronic chemicals,POEelastomers, high-end polyphenylene ether, carbon dioxide catalytic hydrogenation to produce gasoline, all-vanadium redox flow battery technology, etc., the consumption growth rate of some products can even reach15%above. Such rapid consumption growth is a good opportunity for many related chemical companies.